Who won the  Battle of Karabakh?

WHAT LED TO THE WAR?

• In 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed, the newly independent Armenia and Azerbaijan went to war over Nagorno-Karabakh.
• It had been an autonomous region within Azerbaijan during the Soviet years.
• Armenians have made historical claims over the enclave, which is largely populated by ethnic Armenians.

• Seven surrounding districts from Azeri forces, which amounted to some 13% of Azerbaijan’s territory.
• In September, Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev launched the offensive vowing to take back Nagorno-Karabakh and other Armenian-occupied districts.
• In six weeks, Azeri forces, backed by Turkey-supplied armed drones and other equipment, cut through Armenian defences and retook territories.
• This including some 40% of Nagorno-Karabakh itself.

SOURCES : THE HINDU | Who won the  Battle of Karabakh?

ROOTS OF THE CONFLICT

• The largely mountainous and forested Nagorno-Karabakh, home for some 150,000 people, is at the centre of the conflict.
• Nagorno-Karabakh is located within Azerbaijan but is populated, mostly, by those of Armenian ethnicity.
• The conflict can be traced back to the pre-Soviet era when the region was at the meeting point of Ottoman, Russian and the Persian empires.

• In the 1980s, when the Soviet power was receding, separatist currents picked up in Nagorno-Karabakh.
• In 1988, the national assembly voted to dissolve the region’s autonomous status and join Armenia.
• When Armenia and Azerbaijan became independent after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the clashes led to an open war in which tens of thousands were killed.
• The war lasted till 1994 when both sides reached a ceasefire.
• By that time, Armenia had taken control of Nagorno-Karabakh and handed it to Armenian rebels.

• The region is still treated as a part of Azerbaijan by the international community, and Baku wants to take it back.

RUSSIAN ROLE

• Russia, which has a security agreement with Armenia, remained neutral in the early days of the war when Turkey threw its weight behind Azerbaijan.
• Russia brokered a ceasefire two weeks into the conflict, but it didn’t hold.

• President Vladimir Putin said the security guarantee is for Armenia, not for the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh.
• But Russia was apparently concerned about the rapid change in the status quo and the more assertive security role Turkey was playing in its backyard.
• By the third week of October, Russia established small military outposts along the Armenian border.
• In the same week, Russia conducted a massive air strike in Syria’s Idlib against Turkish-backed militants, killing dozens of them, which is seen as Moscow’s warning to Turkey.

• Under pressure from a decisive Moscow, both sides agreed to cease the operations.

TERMS OF THE TRUCE

• The core of the enclave with ethnic Armenians and Stepanakert as its capital would remain outside the control of Azerbaijan.
• Baku will build a road linking the newly captured territories to Nakhchivan, an autonomous republic of Azerbaijan.
• As the broker of the truce, Russia would send some 2,000 peacekeepers to the region.

• In sum, Azerbaijan gained territories, but not the whole of Nagorno-Karabakh.
• Armenia lost territories it controlled since the 1990s but avoided a total defeat as much of Nagorno-Karabakh would remain independent of Azeri control.
• And Russia gained a bigger foothold in the region with its troops being deployed within Azerbaijan.