The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update Report

The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update Report | UPSC

HEADLINES:

Avg global temperature can rise by 1.5°C in next 5 years: WMO report

WHY IN NEWS:

Countries under 2015 Paris Agreement had agreed to try and limit average global temperature rise to below 2°C by the end of the century

SYLLABUS COVERED: GS 1 : 3 :  Global Warming : Climate Change

LEARNING:

For PRELIMS it is important to understand these predictions and remember the publisher of this report .

For MAINS you have to grasp the consequences and the prediction . A comparative picture has been mentioned below for better analysis . Let us dive in !

ISSUE:

One of the next five years may be witness to global average temperatures of 1.5 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels (defined as the average of global temperatures between 1850-1900), according to a recent World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report.

The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update

TITLE

The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update

PUBLISHED BY

World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

FREQUENCY

The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, led by the United Kingdom’s Met Office, provides a climate outlook for the next five years, updated annually.

OBJECTIVE

It harnesses the expertise of internationally acclaimed climate scientists and the best computer models from leading climate centres around the world to produce actionable information for decision-makers.

OBSERVATIONS

ANNUAL GLOBAL TEMPERATURE : This is likely to be at least 1°C warmer than preindustrial levels (defined as the 1850-1900 average) in each of the coming 5 years and is very likely to be within the range 0.91 – 1.59°C

There is a ~70% chance that one or more months during the next 5 years will be at least 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels

The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update Report UPSC

WARM OCEANS : Over 2020-2024, almost all regions, except parts of the southern oceans, are likely to be warmer than the recent past

There is a ~20% chance that one of the next 5 years will be at least 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels, but the chance is increasing with time

DRY AREAS : Over 2020-2024, high latitude regions are likely to be wetter than the recent past whereas northern and eastern parts of South America are likely to be dryer.
STORMS : Over 2020-2024, sea-level pressure anomalies suggest that the northern North Atlantic region could have stronger westerly winds leading to more storms in western Europe.
ARCTIC REGION : In 2020, large land areas in the Northern Hemisphere are likely to be over 0.8°C warmer than the recent past (defined as the 1981-2010 average).

In 2020, the Arctic is likely to have warmed by more than twice as much as the global mean temperature.

SMALLEST CHANGE : The smallest temperature change is expected in the tropics and in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere.

IASbhai WINDUP:

On June 20, Verkhoyansk in Siberia recorded a temperature of 38°C, possibly the highest ever recorded in the entire Arctic region.
The region has experienced heat waves in the last few months leading to rapid melting of permafrost.
In 2020, many parts of South America, southern Africa and Australia are likely to be dryer than the recent past.

SOURCES:THE HINDU & PIB/DAILY CURRENT AFFAIRS for UPSC CSE Prelims & Mains

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