Explained : Nepal’s Political Crisis 2020 | UPSC

• This effectively ended the unity forced among the left forces that had led to the creation of the single, grand Nepal Communist Party three years ago.

• Oli took the step when he realised that a factional feud within the party had reached the point of no return.
• A dozen petitions have been filed in the Supreme Court challenging the dissolution with two years left of the present House’s tenure.
• Each faction has also approached the Election Commission claiming it is the real party.

THE UNIFICATION & ITS END

• Oli was a fierce critic of the politics of violence that caused more than 17,000 deaths.

• Oli was leading the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist, and Prachanda represented the Nepal Communist Party (Maoist).
• Following the merger, the two leaders agreed that they would lead the government by turn.
• Oli did not honour at the end of his two-and-a-half years, thus sowing the seeds of separation.
• Now, as a split appears inevitable, Oli is hoping to continue in power with those following him.

QUESTIONS OVER CONSTITUTION

• There are already popular protests on the streets.
• The split in a party with a two-thirds majority has raised concerns that it may lead to a systemic collapse.

CONSTITUTION & DISSOLUTION

• Dissolution of the House is not new in Nepal, but this is the first such instance after the new Constitution of 2015 that places safeguards against dissolution.

• The 1991 Constitution, scrapped in 2006, had provisions for dissolution of Parliament at the Prime Minister’s prerogative.
• During the time it was in force, Parliament was dissolved thrice.

• The Supreme Court upheld that dissolution.
• But in 1995, the Supreme Court rejected the dissolution by Prime Minister Manmohan Adhikary after a no-trust motion had been tabled but before the loss of majority was proved.
• The court held that the executive did not have the right to snatch an issue under consideration of the legislature.
• The third time, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba dissolved Parliament in 2002 and the Supreme Court upheld it.
• King Gyanendra revived Parliament in April 2006.

STUDENTS AGITATION : NEPAL | Nepal’s Political Crisis 2020

OPPOSITION STAKES

• The opposition Nepali Congress and the Madhes-based Janata Samajbadi Party have reasons to hope than an early poll will earn them a bigger space in Parliament.
• But it fears that the likely street protest and violence, besides the onset of rain in late April and early May, could be used as an excuse to further defer the election.

THE ARMY

• This implies that if Oli tries to rule with the help of security forces to maintain law and order and contain protests, it is uncertain how far the Army will play along.

THE CHINA FACTOR

• China has been a big factor in Nepal’s internal politics since 2006.
• It is seen as having lobbied, visible or secret, to prevent the split.

• It has increased its presence in Nepal because of a perception that India played a crucial role in the 2006 political change.