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Cyclone Tauktae | UPSC
Cyclone Tauktae can be among the ‘strongest’ on India’s west coast in 2 decades
WHY IN NEWS:
Two of south Asia’s megapolises, Mumbai and Karachi lie in the path of Cyclone Tauktae
SYLLABUS COVERED: GS 1 : Cyclones
- The first cyclone of 2021 may be here, and quite a storm it can be. Cyclone Tauktae is likely to form May 16, 2021 in Arabian Sea.
- The system must be watched closely for rapid intensification, which can make predictions tough.
- The current characteristics of the storm indicate rapid intensification.
DEPRESSION AND LANDFALL
- IMD has forecast that the track of the cyclone will take it in the north-north eastward direction till the evening of May 14 and in a north north-westward direction after that, towards the Gujarat coast.
- The weather agency has predicted that the cyclone might intensify into a severe cyclone by the evening of May 15 and into a very severe cyclone with wind speeds in excess of 160 km per hour by the evening of May 16.
- On May 13, the IMD had forecasted the formation of the cyclone May 16.
- The cyclone is expected to reach the Gujarat coast by the morning of May 18.
- This cyclonic scenario is changing in a quick and uncertain way due to unusual warming of the Arabian Sea .
- The frequency and intensity of cyclones in the Arabian Sea have increased in the recent years.
- This is because of the rapid warming that has made the relatively cooler Arabian Sea (compared to the Bay of Bengal) a warm pool region that can actively support cyclone formation.
- Global Forecasting System data from the United States’ National Centers for Environmental Prediction, shows that a depression has already formed and that Cyclone Tauktae might form by the evening of May 14.
- This would be much ahead of the timeline forecasted by IMD, indicative of rapid intensification and putting in imminent danger, the western coastal states of India.
- IBM’s The Weather Channel reported that the cyclone formation might happen Friday (May 14) or Saturday (May 15), much ahead of IMD’s current May 16.
- The agency said the cyclone might strengthen further and reach the Gujarat coast by the evening of May 18.
- Many of the weather models predict that the track of the cyclone will be really close to the coast which means that coastal areas of Kerala, Karnataka, Goa and Maharashtra will experience heavy rainfall beginning May 14.
- Scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Princeton University in the United States and University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom analysed 90 peer reviewed articles.
- They tried to understand the impact of a changing climate on tropical cyclones — a combined named used for hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons.
- Cyclones are now intensifying rapidly since warm ocean waters act as a fuel for them.
- Extremely severe cyclones like Fani and Amphan intensified from a weak to severe status in less than 24 hours due to warm ocean conditions.
- State-of-the-art cyclone models are unable to pick this rapid intensification because they do not incorporate the ocean dynamics accurately.
- Cyclone Tauktae also was developed into a low-pressure system earlier than forecasted. As of now, it is forecasted to develop into a cyclone by May 16.
- Given that the ocean and atmospheric conditions are now favourable, chances of early cyclone formation and rapid intensification cannot be ruled out.
- Two highly populated megapolises of south Asia, Mumbai and Karachi will be on the path of the cyclone over the weekend.
- Acting on the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) warning to fishermen in Kerala over a cyclonic storm prediction, the State Disaster Management Authority on Thursday banned fishing on the coast till further notice.
- The IMD has issued a warning for fishermen to not venture into the sea till May 17.
- On December 3, 2020, cyclone Burevi made a landfall in in Kerala and adjoining areas.
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