IASbhai Daily Editorial Hunt | 11th Sep 2020
If you set goals and go after them with all the determination you can muster, your gifts will take you places that will amaze you.– Les Brown
EDITORIAL HUNT #132 :“Chinese Aging Population | UPSC“
Yogesh Gupta is a former Ambassador
The great greying of China
There is evidence that the country’s aging population will incrementally impede its economic growth
SYLLABUS COVERED: GS 1 : Concept of Population : Human Geography
Chinese demographic dividend has paid off worse after one child one policy. Discuss -(GS 1)
- Chinese one child policy
- Way Forward
- ONE CHILD POLICY : China’s one child policy (OCP) was conceived in 1979 to seek popular support for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) after Mao’s disastrous ‘Great Leap Forward’ and ‘Cultural Revolution’ .
- GAIN PER CAPITA : If the party (CCP) did not produce significant gains in per capita income, it would lose what little legitimacy it had retained.
- FALLING BIRTH RATES : The results of the one child policy have been disastrous. Average birth rate in China has fallen to 1.6 births per woman (National Bureau of Statistics of China) in 2017.
- POPULATION REPLACEMENT RATE : It was at 2.1 , Where fewer children were born and of them, fewer were females (given China’s preference for boys like in some other countries).
- REDUCED LABOUR FORCE : Its labour force (ages 20-64) will reduce from about a billion in 2017 to 787 million by 2050.
- STABILISING EFFECT : If China can stabilise its fertility rate at 1.2, its population will fall to 1.07 billion in 2050 and 480 million by 2100.
- EXPENDITURE : China will need huge expenditures on health, social welfare and pensions; its savings rate will decline; a fall in the number of young people will lead to a decline in manufacturing, exports, and also mean lower revenues for government.
- PER CAPITA EFFECT : With its annual per capita income at $10,000, increasing population of older people and slowing economic growth rates.
- ARMED FORCES : China’s armed forces are already struggling as many one child policy children are often misfit for fighting in tougher conditions.
- HUMAN RESOURCES : A smaller population reduces intellectual exchanges among diverse human groups, reducing chances of the emergence of great innovators.
- TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY : Developed countries have reduced the impact of declining population by raising the total factor productivity (TFP) growth (ratio of output versus cost of inputs per hourly basis).
- GOVERNANCE STRUCTURE : China has never ranked very high in governance indicators . EX : 77th in the annual Corruption Perceptions Index of Transparency International (2017).
- CURBING DISSENTS : Instead of giving representation to new interest groups such as industrialists, micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) etc CCP has been establishing absolute control over Chinese society.
- AGGRESSIVE POLICY MAKING : Also, unlike the past, China will face a hostile external environment in the coming years as a reaction to unfair and aggressive policies.
China’s economic growth will stutter and decline as the impact of aging gets more pronounced in the coming years.
SOURCES: THE HINDU EDITORIAL HUNT | Chinese Aging Population | UPSC